This daily briefing for October 1, 2026 opens on a mixed Wednesday session on Wall Street and on a macro calendar that is already partly known for the day: the ADP report on September private payrolls came out this very morning, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the weekly jobless claims are still due for release in the coming hours.
Wall Street’s close on Wednesday, September 30
Wednesday’s session ended in mixed fashion across the three major New York indices. The Dow Jones dropped 0.86%, or 443.87 points, to close at 50,906.05 points. The S&P 500 fell more modestly, by 0.25% (19.30 points), to 7,651.54 points. The Nasdaq Composite, by contrast, gained 0.24% (63.52 points), to 26,861.06 points, lifted by certain technology stocks while the rest of the market digested the latest inflation figures (Boursorama).
On the bond market, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury stood at 5.25% on September 29, a level observers describe as the highest since 2007 (France 24). For traders who follow this benchmark yield session by session, the daily briefing for September 29 and the daily briefing for September 26 help place this climb in context over time.
August PCE inflation, already published and already priced in
It is precisely this inflation reading that weighed on Wednesday’s session. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the PCE price index rose 3.4% year over year in August 2026, and 3.0% excluding food and energy, the component the Federal Reserve considers most representative of underlying inflation (Bureau of Economic Analysis). That figure remains above the Fed’s 2% target and fuels questions about the path of interest rates, a subject already covered in the daily briefing for September 28.
September’s ADP private payrolls report, released this morning
On the morning of October 1, the US private sector released its monthly ADP National Employment Report. The result shows a rebound: 90,000 jobs were created in September, a figure driven by education and health services as well as leisure and hospitality, marking the first acceleration in hiring since May after three months of slowdown (ADP National Employment Report). August’s figure was also revised down, from 38,000 to 36,000 private jobs created, according to the same release (ADP National Employment Report). This private report traditionally precedes the official Bureau of Labor Statistics report by two days, and traders tracking US employment dynamics had already observed, in the daily briefing for September 30, a parallel decline in job openings and consumer confidence.
What is still to come: the ISM manufacturing index and weekly claims
Two confirmed macro events remain on the calendar for October 1. The Institute for Supply Management has announced that its ISM Manufacturing PMI report covering September will be released at 10:00 a.m. Eastern time (ISM World). As a reminder, August’s reading came in at 54.6%, down one point from July’s 55.6%, which nonetheless marked an eighth consecutive month of expansion in the US manufacturing sector. No consensus or numerical forecast for September has been communicated by the institution at this stage, so this briefing notes only the scheduled release.
In addition, the US Department of Labor publishes its weekly report on unemployment insurance claims every Thursday morning at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (Office of Unemployment Insurance). This release is therefore also confirmed for October 1, though at the time of writing this briefing does not have the prior figure reported by the institution nor an official forecast.
What this briefing does not settle
This briefing does not claim to anticipate the market’s reaction to the ISM and claims data still due this Thursday. It only records facts already confirmed, kept separate from the agenda that remains open. For traders being evaluated on a prop firm challenge, caution around macro releases with high volatility potential remains a matter of risk management, not a directional bet.