The CPI above forecast October reading showed consumer prices rising 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the 0.3% economists expected, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on November 10, 2026. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also beat expectations at 0.3% versus 0.2% forecast. Wall Street closed lower the same day, and Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller floated a possible 50 basis point hike in December.
The October CPI and the missing annual figure
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics release of November 10, 2026, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers rose 0.4% in October after a 0.6% increase in September (Bureau of Labor Statistics). Unusually, no twelve-month change was published for October. The BLS notes that the government shutdown of October 2025 prevented data collection for most series in this index, making an annual comparison impossible for now.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected a 0.3% increase for the headline index and 0.2% for the core index. The published results, 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, therefore exceeded this consensus on both measures (CNBC).
| Indicator | Published value (October 2026) | Dow Jones consensus | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (monthly change) | 0.4% | 0.3% | November 10, 2026 |
| Core CPI (monthly change) | 0.3% | 0.2% | November 10, 2026 |
| Headline CPI, prior month (September) | 0.6% | n/a | reported November 10, 2026 |
Wall Street falls Tuesday after the release
The three major U.S. indices closed lower on November 10, 2026. The S&P 500 lost 29.01 points, or 0.4%, to 7520.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 157.86 points, or 0.3%, to 52231.89. The Nasdaq Composite, hit hardest, dropped 187.26 points, or 0.7%, to 25065.87 (Associated Press). The CPI above forecast October reading revived concerns about the Fed’s rate path, which weighed especially on technology shares.
Waller floats a 50 basis point hike in December
The same day, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller spoke in the morning in London at the Bank of England Watchers Conference, before the CPI release (Federal Reserve Board). He said a hot inflation report could push him to advocate for a half-point hike in December, and specified that such a hike should be considered if core CPI came in “around 0.3”: “In that case, I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered at the December meeting.” He added that a hike limited to 25 basis points would put the Fed’s credibility at stake. Hours later, core CPI indeed came in at 0.3% (CNBC).
Brent rebounds after the previous day’s drop
In oil markets, Brent briefly fell below $90 a barrel on November 10, 2026, the same day as the CPI release, a move Rigzone attributed to hopes of de-escalation in the conflict with Iran and to technical factors amplifying the sell-off (Rigzone). Brent subsequently regained ground, according to the continuous quote from Trading Economics, which updates hour by hour (Trading Economics).
Today’s agenda: Veterans Day and a closed bond market
November 11, 2026 marks Veterans Day in the United States. The U.S. bond market and banks are closed for the occasion, but equity exchanges, including the NYSE and Nasdaq, remain open, according to Yahoo Finance (Yahoo Finance). No additional time or economic figure is to be reported for the day beyond what primary sources have published. For traders following these macro releases as part of an evaluation, the weekly recap of Fed and OPEC+ decisions places this October CPI reading in the context of the preceding weeks.
Frequently asked questions about the CPI and the market reaction
Why does the October CPI have no annual figure?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics explains that the government shutdown of October 2025 prevented data collection for most series of the index during that period. Without a comparable figure for October 2025, no twelve-month change could be calculated for October 2026.
Why did Wall Street fall after the CPI release?
Both the headline and core CPI exceeded the consensus of economists surveyed by Dow Jones. An inflation figure above expectations typically revives concerns about monetary policy, which weighed on all three indices during the November 10, 2026 session.
What does Waller’s 50 basis point scenario mean?
During his speech in London on November 10, 2026, Governor Waller said a 50 basis point hike could be considered in December if inflation stayed elevated, rather than a hike limited to 25 basis points, which he views as a risk to the Fed’s credibility.
Why do stock exchanges stay open on November 11 while banks are closed?
Veterans Day is a federal holiday that closes the U.S. bond market and banks, but equity exchanges like the NYSE and Nasdaq do not follow that calendar and remain open that day.